Modeling Provincial Covid-19 Epidemic Data Using an Adjusted Time-Dependent SIRD Model

نویسندگان

چکیده

In this paper, we develop a forecasting model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at provincial (i.e., EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from Italian Ministry Health integrated with extracted daily press conferences regional authorities and local newspaper websites. This integration is needed as death are not available NUTS-3 open channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD used to predict behavior epidemic; specifically, number susceptible, infected, deceased, recovered people epidemiological parameters. Predictive performance evaluated comparison real data.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1661-7827', '1660-4601']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126563